NEWS : HURRICANE WARNING

Hurricane Warning for Southwestern Florida Tim Ballisty, Meteorologist, 

The Weather Channel 11:23 a.m. ET 8/18/2008 

Tropical Storm Fay has now crossed over western Cuba and is now emerging into the Florida Straits. A hurricane warning is now in effect for southwestern Florida while a tropical storm warning is in effect for the southern third of coastal Florida. As of 11 am EDT, Fay was located about 70 miles south-southeast from Key West, Florida, with maximum sustained winds near 60 miles per hour. Fay is moving to the north-northwest near 13 miles per hour. This forward speed is forecast to slow and a turn more to the north is anticipated. The Florida Keys can expect to experience tropical storm conditions for the majority of the afternoon and into the early evening hours. Sustained winds, at times, will be above 40 mph while gusts can be expected to be approaching 60 mph or greater. In fact, tropical storm-force gusts are already occurring. A greater impact from Fay, however, will likely be the heavy rain. Fay is forecast to produce rain totals of 4 to 8 inches with some locations picking up close to 10 inches throughout the Florida Keys and portions of South Florida. As Fay rotates northward, it is also possible for isolated tornadoes to impact the South Florida area. Waves will continue to build from the east today along the southwest Florida shores. Wave heights are forecast to be in the 10 to 14 feet range. Fay is not a well organized system and because of that it is not prudent to focus entirely on the center of its eventual landfall. Heavy rain will be focused over the ill-defined center of circulation but especially along the eastern half of the tropical storm. So that being said, regardless of Fay's landfall, the majority of the Florida peninsula will experience heavy rain. Because Fay's forward speed is expected to slow this afternoon, it may allow the tropical storm to gain further organization and thus strengthen. It is not out of the question that Fay may reach category one hurricane status before making landfall along the southwest Florida coast. Fay's peak strength is all dependent on how long it remains over the Gulf waters. Fay will trek northward over the Florida Keys this evening and push towards the southwest Florida coast overnight with an eventual landfall by midday Tuesday or perhaps earlier. Residents and tourists from Naples northward to the Tampa/St. Pete area should all closely monitor the progress Tropical Storm Fay taking note of Fay's track and any possible rapid intensification of the storm. Again, any slight deviation from the current forecast projected path will result in significant changes in Fay's strength and ultimate landfall.